Residential construction in Poland accelerated again in 2018 extending growth trends observed since 2014.
The number of completions jumped by 9%, the number of new permits increased by 3% and the number of starts surged by 19% in 2018.
The key driving forces of new residential construction remained unchanged.
Stable interest rates, rising purchasing power of individuals and positive consumer sentiment fuel new purchases.
Moreover, real estate investments are increasingly popular in view of growing residential rents and due to low opportunity cost of holding cash or deposits.
Mortgage lending accelerated in 2018. Sales of new mortgage loans increased by 11% and 20% in terms of volume and value respectively,
while the average loan ticket size increased by 9%.
Looking forward, in our base scenario, we expect new mortgage lending to keep growing steadily through 2021.
The total outstanding is likely to increase by 6% p.a.
For more information on recent developments in the Polish banking sector, please refer to the full publication.
Table of contents
Executive summary
1. Residential real estate stock & prices Slide 1: New dwellings completed, starts, permits, 2013-2018
Slide 2: New dwellings completed by regions, 2018 Q1-Q3
Slide 3: Residential real estate prices in key cities, 2012-2018 Q3
2. Mortgage lending Slide 4: Total outstanding lending to households by type of loan, 2013-2018
Slide 5: Mortgage loans to households outstanding, local vs. foreign currency, 2013-2018
Slide 6: Number of new mortgage loans, value of new loans, average new loan size, 2013-2018F
Slide 7: Distribution of new mortgage lending by top cities, 2018 Q3
Slide 8: Mortgage lending penetration benchmarks - International comparison, 2018 Q3
Slide 9: Mortgage lending in Poland vs. Europe- market size vs. growth, 2016 Q3-2018 Q3
Slide 10: New mortgage loans by size and LTV, 2014 Q4-2018 Q3
Slide 11: New mortgage loans by currency, 2012 Q4-2018 Q3
Slide 12: Top banks by outstanding mortgage loans (market share>5%) , 2016Q3, 2017 Q3, 2018 Q3
Slide 13: The role of financial intermediaries in mortgage loans distribution, 2013-2017
Slide 14: Reference rates: WIBOR3M & LIBOR CHF 6M, 2012-2018
Slide 15: Average lending margins evolution- PLN loans, 2012-2018
3. Regulatory issues, risk Slide 16: The evolution of mortgage loan NPLs, 2009 Q1-2018 Q3
Slide 17: Regulatory environment with regards to mortgage loans
Slide 18: CHF/PLN exchange rate, 2005-2018, CHF-denominated loans outstanding.
4. Forecast Slide 19: Mortgage loans- outstanding value forecast (PLN, FX loans), GDP penetration, 2019-2021
Methodological notes
Research Report: "Mortgage lending in Poland, 2019-2021"
