The competitive landscape within the Polish banking sector has not changed much over the past few years. The group of major commercial banks remained unchanged, concurrently increasing its market share slightly, indicating a trend toward growing concentration. Noteworthy in this context is the government-owned SPV Bank - BGK, which has ascended the top list of banks due to its exclusive rights in distributing support and lending funds from both the government and the EU.
While there has been little M&A activity in the banking sector recently, an exception from this trend is Velo Bank. This institution is currently available for acquisition following a compelled restructuring and takeover by the government of the erstwhile Getin Noble Bank. The sales tender is presently open, with expectations for closure early in 2024.
The surge in market interest rates, rising from zero to approximately 6.5% in 2022, had a profound impact on the banking sector. The escalating cost of money significantly influenced the new investment demand of corporations, while simultaneously limiting the capacity of individuals to secure new loans. Conversely, the notably higher interest rates, though still below inflation, spurred interest in depositing funds in banks. Consequently, overall client deposits at banks reached PLN 1.92 trillion in Q2 2023, reflecting an 11%+ change over 1½ years since the end of 2021. Concurrently, client loans experienced a contraction of over 2%, decreasing from PLN 1.29 trillion at the close of 2021 to PLN 1.26 trillion in Q2 2023.
Despite many challenges, the future outlook for key banking volumes remains favorable. Total banking assets are projected to grow steadily, potentially reaching PLN 3.5 trillion by the end of 2025.
For more information on recent developments in the Polish banking sector, please refer to the full publication.
Table of contents
Slide 1: Executive summary
1. Macroeconomic overview Slide 2: Poland - General overview
Slide 3: Poland vs. other consumer markets in Europe, 2022
Slide 4: Key macroeconomic indicators, 2018-2023F
Slide 5: Foreign trade statistics, C/A balance, FDIs, 2018-2023F
Slide 6: Unemployment, wages & salaries, 2018-2023F
Slide 7: Consumer confidence Index evolution, 2017-Sep.2023
2.1. Banking market - General trends Slide 8: CEE banking markets: Size vs. growth matrix, 2020-2022
Slide 9: CEE banking penetration benchmarks - International comparison, 2022
Slide 10: Structure of the Polish Banking Sector - types of banks and their size/count, 1H2023
Slide 11: Evolution of banking assets by groups of owners (domestic/foreign), 2019-1H2023
Slide 12: Top 10 foreign investors in the Polish banking market, 2022
Slide 13: Banking assets evolution (LCU, EUR), 2018-1H2023
Slide 14: Banking assets evolution by groups of banks, 2018-1H2023
Slide 15: Top 10 commercial banks, market shares, ownership, 1H2023
Slide 16: Evolution of market shares for top commercial banks, 2016-1H2023
Slide 17: Concentration of the banking market, 2021 vs. 2022 (Assets, HH Index)
Slide 18: Deposits of non-financial clients by segment, 2018-1H2023
Slide 19: Loans to non-financial clients by segment, 2018-1H2023
Slide 20: Non-performing loans value and NPL ratios by type of business segment, 2020-Jun.2023
Slide 21: Non-performing retail loans, ratios by type of product, 2007-1H2023
Slide 22: Central Bank interest rates and mandatory reserve policy, Jan. 2019- Oct. 2023
Slide 23: Inter-bank interest rates, Jan 2013 – Sep. 2023: (WIBOR 3M, Polonia O/N)
Slide 24: Tier 1 capital, CAR ratio for banks, 2020-Jun. 2023
Slide 25: Bank outlets by groups of bank, agencies, 2018-2023
Slide 26: Employment in commercial banks, bank assets per employee evolution, 2018-1H2023
Slide 27: Direct employee costs evolution, 2017-2022
Slide 28: ATM number and transaction value evolution 2018-1H2023, ATM players, 1H2023
Slide 29: POS number and transaction value evolution 2018-1H2023, POS players, 2022
3. Retail banking Slide 30: Cash in circulation, cash vs. deposits ratio, 2018-1H2023
Slide 31: Household deposits evolution, split local vs. foreign currency, 2018-1H2023
Slide 32: Household deposits by type (current vs. term) and by client sub-segments, 2021-1H2023
Slide 33: TOP banks serving household sector, market shares, 1H2023
Slide 34: Payment account penetration in Poland, Bank account holders demography, 2020
Slide 35: Bank account penetration & gap: Poland vs. other Europe, 2021
Slide 36: Number of customers and number of current accounts of individuals (ROR) at major banks, 1H2023
Slide 37: Retail deposits at major retail banks. Average deposit per single (current) account, 1H2023
Slide 38: Total retail accounts at major banks - recent evolution, 2015-1H2023
Slide 39: Internet use and Internet users in Poland, 2022
Slide 40: Total number of accounts with online and mobile access, 2016-2022
Slide 41: Top banks by number of active mobile app users, 2022
Slide 42: Key mobile payment services in Poland classified by origin of funds, 2023
Slide 43: Investment funds assets evolution, domestic and foreign funds, 2018-1H2023
Slide 44: Investment funds - top 10 players, September 2023
Slide 45: Personal Financial Assets (PFA) structure and evolution, 2018-1H2023
Slide 46: Loans to household sector by type, evolution, 2018-1H2023
Slide 47: Mortgage to household sector by currency- outstanding value, 2018-1H2023
Slide 48: Mortgage to household sector – new sales, 2018-1H2023
Slide 49: Consumer lending outstanding evolution, 2018-1H2023
Slide 50: Consumer lending – new sales, 2020- 1H2023
3.1. Payment cards Slide 51: Cards issued by type, 2018-1Q 2023
Slide 52: Cards payments: Poland vs. Europe, growth vs. market development stage, 2019-2021
Slide 53: Cards payments: International comparison, card payments value, volume, cards issued, 2021
Slide 54: Card transactions by type (cashless, cash), share of cash transactions, 2018-2022
Slide 55: Credit card transactions , values, volumes, per card evolution, 2018-2022
Slide 56: Top players in credit cards business - issuers, co-branding partners, 1H2023
4. Corporate banking Slide 57: Corporate subjects by size, number, employment, revenues and profits, 2021
Slide 58: Corporate subjects, revenue and profit evolution, 2016-2022
Slide 59: Number of companies by turnover (companies with 10+ employees), 2022
Slide 60: Corporate deposits and loans evolution, 2018-1H2023
Slide 61: Top players in the corporate banking market, market shares in deposits and loans, 1H2023
Slide 62: Leasing market, structure by industry, top players, 2016-2022
Slide 63: Factoring market, top players, 2018-2022
Slide 64: Non-treasury debt securities market, 2018-2022
5. Banks' profitability Slide 65: Nominal rates on loans and deposits by segment, implied interest margins, Jan. 2020-Sep.2023
Slide 66: Commercial banks - profitability tree, 2019-2022
Slide 67: Top 5 commercial banks profitability tree – peers comparison, 2022 (PKO, Pekao, Santander, mBank, ING)
Slide 68: Segment reporting (1/2): volumes, revenues and profit by segment (retail, corporate, other), 2022
Slide 69: Segment reporting (2/2): volumes, revenues and profit by segment (retail, corporate, other), 2022
Slide 70: Commercial banks - revenue, costs and profits composition, 2022
6. Banks' valuation and M&A activity Slide 71: Share price performance in the stock market for key listed banks in Poland, Jan. 2020– Oct. 2023
Slide 72: Market multiples for major listed banks in Poland, Nov. 2023
Slide 73: Strategic control map for major listed banks in Poland, Nov. 2023
Slide 74: Efficiency of top banks in Poland - Cost to income, Assets/Personnel/Branches benchmarks, 1H2023
Slide 75: Acquisition transactions in the Polish banking market (1/4), 2005-2008
Slide 76: Acquisition transactions in the Polish banking market (2/4), 2009-2011
Slide 77: Acquisition transactions in the Polish banking market (3/4), 2012-2016
Slide 78: Acquisition transactions in the Polish banking market (4/4), 2017-ytd
7. Top 5 banks - Profiles Slide 79-80: Bank profiles: PKO Bank Polski
Slide 81-82: Bank profiles: Bank Pekao
Slide 83-84: Bank profiles: Santander
8. Mid-term forecasts Slide 85: Forecast - household loans & deposits, 2023-2025F
Slide 86: Forecast - corporate loans & deposits, 2023-2025F
Slide 87: Forecast - banking assets, 2023-2025F
9. Notes on methodology
Research Report: "Banking Market in Poland, 2023-2025"
