Research reports & databases
80 publications covering banking, insurance, payments, mortgage lending and asset management across Poland and Central & Eastern Europe.
Mortgage lending in Poland, 2026-2028
The housing sector exhibited stabilization throughout 2025. Building permits and housing starts declined slightly, while completions continued to increase modestly, reflecting a balanced market adjustment. Residential real estate prices have consolidated since 2024, stabilizing at current levels without significant upward or downward pressure. This price stabilization, combined with the absence of government subsidy programs, has encouraged a more measured approach among developers and buyers alike. The market appears to have reached an equilibrium where supply and demand dynamics support sustainable activity levels without excessive price volatility. Mortgage lending activity strengthened considerably in Poland in 2025, with new mortgage originations exceeding PLN 103 billion and demonstrating double-digit growth in both value and volume. Despite this robust expansion, the number of active mortgage contracts continues to decline, currently standing at 2.15 million. This contraction reflects ongoing refinancing activity and the systematic closure of legacy foreign-exchange-denominated loans, which have been a persistent challenge for borrowers and lenders alike. The resilience in new lending reflects improved borrower affordability, driven by robust wage growth and tightening labor market conditions. Poland's mortgage market is positioned for moderate growth through 2028, supported by improving affordability dynamics. Wages are expected to continue rising while residential property prices consolidate, collectively enhancing household purchasing power and lending capacity. In a baseline scenario, outstanding mortgage balances are projected to reach PLN 627 billion by 2028, corresponding to approximately 14% of GDP. This represents accelerated growth of 8% year-over-year, compared to the 5% annual growth observed between 2023 and 2025. However, a significant downside risk exists from potential interest rate increases driven by accelerating global inflation and elevated energy prices. Any such monetary tightening could materially constrain borrowing affordability and dampen the projected expansion of mortgage lending activity. For more information on recent developments in the Polish banking sector, please refer to the full publication.
Mortgage lending in Poland, 2025-2027
The housing sector reflected divergent trends in 2024. While building permits and housing starts recovered, completions declined to 200,000 units (down from 221,000 in 2023). This contraction can be linked to persistently elevated real estate prices and the discontinuation of government subsidy programs. Developers have adopted a cautious approach by delaying sales amid softening demand at current price levels, potentially anticipating renewed first-time buyer incentives. Notably, the absence of such subsidies in 2024 contributed to moderating property price inflation, though future policy support remains uncertain. Poland’s mortgage market is poised for steady growth through 2027, supported by sustained economic momentum and improving housing affordability. Despite the lack of confirmed government interventions for first-time buyers, moderating property prices and rising disposable incomes are expected to sustain lending volumes. Under a baseline scenario (assuming no major policy shifts), outstanding mortgage balances are projected to reach PLN 647 billion by 2027, with the mortgage-to-GDP ratio recovering from 13% to 15%. A critical risk to this outlook remains the trajectory of interest rates. The Monetary Policy Council (RPP) faces mounting pressure to sustain a restrictive monetary policy to offset expansionary fiscal measures. Any recalibration of rates—whether upward or downward—would materially influence borrowing costs, affordability, and ultimately, lending activity. For more information on recent developments in the Polish banking sector, please refer to the full publication.
Mortgage lending in Poland, 2024-2026
The residential construction industry in Poland continued to be impacted by negative trends that began in 2022. Declines in building starts (-9% YoY), permits (-19% YoY), and completions (-8% YoY) were recorded in 2023. This reduced supply of new real estate, combined with demand stimulation resulting from a new government-sponsored program dedicated to first-time homebuyers, was reflected in accelerating real estate prices. As the prices of real estate break all-time records, the affordability for buyers keeps falling, which is a key factor supporting the growth in new mortgage lending. The recent downturn in real estate construction, seen in 2022 and 2023, is expected to reverse due to rising property prices and new governmental support programs that are anticipated to boost demand. The impact of the monetary factor—namely high interest rates—is projected to diminish in 2024 and 2025, which should further support growth in new mortgage lending. This sector is poised for additional momentum from a new government lending support scheme planned for 2024. Assuming these conditions, our base scenario forecasts a slight increase in overall mortgage lending in 2024, followed by a more significant rise in 2025 and 2026. Total outstanding lending is estimated to reach PLN 545 billion by 2026, with the loan-to-GDP ratio expected to stabilize at approximately 13%. For more information on recent developments in the Polish banking sector, please refer to the full publication.
Mortgage lending in Poland, 2023-2025
In Poland, in 2022, an abrupt decline in building starts (-28%) and new permits (-13%) was recorded. At the same time, the long-term trend of growing real estate prices slowed down visibly in the most expensive locations, such as Warsaw. An increasing number of existing homes being put on the market and more generous discounts offered by developers indicate that 2023 might see a stabilization or a slight correction in real estate prices. The rapid monetary tightening cycle of the Monetary Policy Council (RPP), which raised interest rates by nearly 7% within a year, has taken its toll on mortgage lending. Sales of new mortgage loans collapsed by nearly 75% year-over-year in late 2022. The negative momentum in the real estate market and in new mortgage lending is likely to persist through 2023. Assuming that there will be no further interest rate hikes, even the current level of rates is highly negative to new lending. The market is still far from equilibrium, and the growth in lending would require either significantly less expensive credit or lower real estate prices, both of which seem unlikely to materialize at least in 2023. For more information on recent developments in the Polish banking sector, please refer to the full publication.
Mortgage lending in Poland, 2021-2023
The residential construction in Poland remained hot in 2020 with home completions increasing by over 7% YoY and reaching a multi-year high at 222k. Nevertheless, there have been also first signs of stabilization with permits growing just by fraction and home starts falling slightly vs. 2019. At the same time, real estate prices continued to climb very fast, fuelled by more and more negative real interest rates and by accelerating CPI, which surpassed 4% in March 2021. By contrast to real estate prices, mortgage lending cooled down slightly with new sales of mortgage loans decreasing by 10% and 3% YoY in terms of volume and value respectively in 2020. Slower sales of new mortgage on the growing real estate market could be attributed mostly to the impact of COVID-19 with lockdowns and stricter lending rules at banks. Nevertheless, mortgage lending is expected to rebound fast once the pandemics eases and it might hit new records already in 2021. For more information on recent developments in the Polish banking sector, please refer to the full publication.
Mortgage lending in Poland, 2020-2022
Residential construction in Poland sustained fast growth in 2019. The number of completions surged by nearly 12%, while the number of starts jumped by almost 7% in 2019. Recently, residential real estate has become increasingly popular among investots due to growing rents and a higher demand for rental properties. The boom is reflected in growing valuations, in particular, across large cities where prices are at multi-year highs. The growth in demand for real estate is also fuelled by negative real interest rates, which discourage individuals from holding bank deposits and which promote material investments, offering preservation of purchasing power. Mortgage lending accelerated in 2019. Sales of new contracts surged to over PLN 62 billon (EUR 14+ billion). Looking forward, in our base scenario, we expect new mortgage lending to cool-off slightly in 2020 but then to resume the solid growth in 2021 and 2022. For more information on recent developments in the Polish banking sector, please refer to the full publication.
Mortgage lending in Poland, 2019-2021
Residential construction in Poland accelerated again in 2018 extending growth trends observed since 2014. The number of completions jumped by 9%, the number of new permits increased by 3% and the number of starts surged by 19% in 2018. The key driving forces of new residential construction remained unchanged. Stable interest rates, rising purchasing power of individuals and positive consumer sentiment fuel new purchases. Moreover, real estate investments are increasingly popular in view of growing residential rents and due to low opportunity cost of holding cash or deposits. Mortgage lending accelerated in 2018. Sales of new mortgage loans increased by 11% and 20% in terms of volume and value respectively, while the average loan ticket size increased by 9%. Looking forward, in our base scenario, we expect new mortgage lending to keep growing steadily through 2021. The total outstanding is likely to increase by 6% p.a. For more information on recent developments in the Polish banking sector, please refer to the full publication.
Mortgage lending in Poland, 2018-2020
Residential construction in Poland accelerated again in 2017 extending growth trends observed since 2014. While the number of completions jumped by 9%, the number of new permits surged by nearly 18% in 2017 alone. The key driving forces of new residential construction remained unchanged. Stable, record-low interest rates and rising purchasing power of individuals fuel new purchases. Moreover, real estate investments have been increasingly popular in view of growing residential rents and due to low opportunity cost of holding cash or deposits. After multiple years of stagnation mortgage lending has seen some recovery during 2017. Sales of new mortgage loans increased by 5% and 11% in terms of volume and value respectively, which also reflected growing average loan ticket size. Looking forward, in our base scenario, we expect new mortgage lending to keep growing at moderate rates through 2020. The total outstanding is likely to increase by 5% p.a. For more information on recent developments in the Polish banking sector, please refer to the full publication.
Mortgage lending in Poland, 2017-2019
The growth in Poland's residential construction observed since early 2014 persisted throughout 2016. The number of new permits and starts increased to 212k and 174k respectively in 2016. Key driving forces of new residential construction have been record-low interest rates encouraging investment-type transactions and rising purchasing power of individuals. In 2016, average wages and salaries increased by +2.7% and the unemployment rate fell to 8.3% as of Dec. 2016 vs. 9.7% a year before. At the same time, residential real estate prices have been pretty stable with -3% to +5% YoY change as of Q3 2016, depending on location. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that housing prices are still lower by 2% to 10% if compared to 2010 levels. In contrast to strong residential construction sector, new mortgage lending by banks remained depressed in 2016. New sales of mortgage loans were almost unchanged in terms of value and they contracted by 2% if measured by volume. There are multiple reasons of weak sales of new mortgage loans by banks. One of them is higher share of buyers paying with cash, which is a consequence of increasing investment demand due to low interest rates (property for rent). Moreover, mortgage loans have been more expensive due to growing interest margins as banks have been passing increasing fees and taxes on clients. Finally, the range of mortgage lending offered by banks in Poland is still inadequate. While fixed interest rate contracts are very rare, variable rate loans, adjusted on a quarterly or half-yearly basis dominate in banks offer. For more information on recent developments in the Polish banking sector, please refer to the full publication.
Mortgage lending in Poland, 2016-2018
An accelerating recovery in Poland`s residential construction could be observed since 2014. The number of new permits and starts jumped to 189k and 168k respectively in 2015 recording a double digit growth, compared to 2014. Key driving forces of improving new home construction have been rising income of individuals - average wages and salaries increased by +3.5% in 2015, and growing employment - the unemployment rate fell to 9.8% in Dec. 2015, compared with 11.4% a year before. Also the recent trend in real estate prices has indicated a gradual recovery. For more information on recent developments in the Polish banking sector, please refer to the full publication.
Mortgage lending in Poland, 2015-2017
The value of outstanding mortgage lending in Poland was up a 6% in 2014, reaching a total 351 billion PLN at year end. Building on favorable economic developments, positive customer sentiment and the cost of money at record low, new mortgage lending in Poland is expected to accelerate in 2015 -2017. For more information on recent developments in the Polish banking sector, please refer to the full publication.